PHX Reporter

As Maricopa County gears up for the Nov. 5 General Election, concerns are mounting over the potential for long wait times at polling places due to a number of factors—from voter roll backlogs, to a complex, four-page ballot, and an election day forecast that predicts a higher voter turnout than in 2020.  

Heather Honey, CEO of Verity Vote and executive director of the Election Research Institute, is advocating for voters to take proactive measures to streamline the process, like printing out a sample ballot and preparing selections ahead of time. 

“Long wait times can discourage people from voting. If they see a line and think it’ll take an hour, they might just leave,” Honey told PHX Reporter. “If they print out and vote their sample ballot ahead of time it reduces the time by almost half. And if we can get enough people to do that, that'll make a real difference or make a significant difference on Election Day if they can do that.”

Many early voters have already taken to social media to voice their concerns about the time it takes to complete their ballots that, for the first time in nearly two decades, is two pages long with four sides and an average of 79 contests, including several complex ballot initiatives.

“When I realized it was actually four pages, I wanted to see how long it would take to fill it out. Some people take 20 to 23 minutes to complete their ballot, which is far longer than the county's estimates of 10 to 13 minutes,” said Honey. 

During a recent tour of Runbeck Election Services, where ballots are printed, Honey learned about the challenges posed by the upcoming election's lengthy ballots. She later put together a report on the issue through Verity Votes entitled Maricopa County Election Day Vote Center Capacity: Flawed Assumptions in the Election Plan Could Negatively Impact Election Day Voters. 

The county’s 2024 Election Plan, released and approved last spring, aimed to optimize voter experience by forecasting wait times based on historical turnout data, booth availability and expected voting duration. 

However, Verity Vote now warns that the model may be inadequate for the projected turnout of over 80%, which would represent a significant increase from the 64% turnout seen in the 2022 General Election.

Last-minute adjustments to the Election Plan are under scrutiny as analysts express concerns about potential voter abandonment due to long lines. 

The Election Day forecast suggests that peak voting times in the morning and evening could further exacerbate wait times, leading to congestion as voters line up for booths. 

Historical data suggests that long wait times can dissuade as much as 30% of voters from participating. 

Maricopa’s model projected a maximum of 421,187 Election Day voters but relied on a simulation that estimated only 365,470 voters, potentially underestimating demand.

The average time for voters to complete the new ballot is projected between 10.4 and 12.4 minutes, but independent tests have revealed that it may actually take around 15 minutes for voters to fill out the new ballot. 

Given the complexity of the propositions and the expected turnout, voters might be facing a significant bottleneck at the voting centers, Verity Votes said in its report. 

Maricopa County’s plan currently includes a maximum of 40 voting booths per location, but with the increase in required booths to handle larger crowds, officials have only managed to increase the total from 7,380 to just over 8,000.

With 246 voting centers in Maricopa County, the nation’s fourth largest county, Honey pointed out the risk of uneven voter distribution leading to overwhelming lines at certain locations. 

“We want to show why they needed to make changes before Election Day to avoid another catastrophe,” Honey said.

The goal, Honey said, is to address these challenges proactively. 

“Arizona law requires managing wait times, and with the vote center model, we have to anticipate where congestion will occur,” she said. 

In its report, Verity Votes made several recommendations to the County Recorder including increasing the number of voting booths at each center, establishing more voting locations in areas with historically high turnout, a robust voter education campaign and implementing on-site early ballot tabulation. 

However, Honey expressed concern about the County Recorder Stephen Richer’s response to concerns.

“I’m afraid he’ll do nothing and rely on third-party groups to encourage voting,” she said. “Our recommendations are completely doable.”

To mitigate wait times, Honey advocates for better communication from the County Recorder’s office. 

“If they sent out messages to voters about how to print and fill out their sample ballots, it could cut the time down significantly,” she said. “It only takes about eight minutes if they come prepared.”

Moreover, Honey recommended expanding voting locations. 

“If you could find a library or school nearby to serve as an additional vote center, even with limited equipment, that could help ease congestion,” she said. “Simple changes could make a significant difference without incurring high costs.”

As Nov. 5 approaches, Honey remains cautious, yet is hopeful. 

“I really feel strongly about addressing the traffic at these vote centers. The county has backup equipment; they just need to be willing to use it effectively,” she said. “It’s crucial for voters to have options and for their voices to be heard without unnecessary obstacles.”